Washington starter Jake Irvin has a 6.96 ERA over his past eight outings overall and 5.81 on the road this season. A few Brewers led by Willson Contreras (1.611 OPS in nine at-bats) have good if limited splits off him. It's ace righty Freddy Peralta (1.56 home ERA) starting for the Brewers, meaning he won't be able to throw in the All-Star Game. He will have at least one extra day off ahead of his next start so the team should have little problem allowing him to go at least seven IP if need be and not getting shelled. No James Wood for WSH, which is a nice surprise.

Crikey, we don't see a F5 total of 6 often when games aren't played in Denver (self-explanatory) or Sacramento (an apparent jet stream or something right over that minor-league park). But the winds aren't blowing out at GABP today. Colorado's Bradley Blalock is decidedly not good at 0-2 with a 12.94 ERA but I also think it may be a bullpen-type day. And while the Rockies stink there, too, it's usually helpful in keeping offenses in check simply as seeing a different pitcher every other inning or so. Cincy starter Brady Singer is solid enough, and we know the Rox can't hit a lick. Might push and I probably would not play 5.5 -- which all our other books have.

Cool, a -1 popped up. May well push as the Rays are very solid, albeit not playing well at the moment. But with Garrett Crochet on the hill, we think Boston prevails. Not a single Rays batter has a career hit off him. Tampa is .500 vs. lefties compared to five games over against righties. This is why I love -1, the MLB version of Draw No Bet. I don't believe the Red Sox are worth -190, so I'm completely fine risking the push (I've evolved) and hoping for a two-run or more win. Seriously, I might play -1 the rest of the season if I could ...

Tarik Skubal didn't have his usual Skubal-ness Friday, but I have had a bit of a man-crush on former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize (9-2, 2.63 ERA) since the spring. He starts today and was my longer shot play to win the Cy Young. That's probably not happening, but the door is a bit more open. At home, Mize is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA. But Skubal was unbeaten at home too. What can I say, the Mariners and in particular the "Big Dumper" perplex me often. They are like an army of smart monkeys i.e. Superman -- saw it Friday night and it was great (Guardians vibe-ish). I will name something Krypto within the next 24 hours. But then I'm a Supes nerd.

Don't love fading my Cubbies but getting Max Fried only -158 at home is something we play a little on. Chicago is under .500 vs. southpaws as the Cubs' two best hitters -- Kyle Tucker and PCA -- hit from the left side. Both have significantly worse splits against lefties. PCA can't hit lefties much yet. Matthew Boyd has been great for the North Siders on the mound, but the Yankees destroy southpaws and a few of them have good if limited splits off him. Small play as this year, anyways, I don't really want to fade the Cubs much. Doubt I pick against the Bears once in 2025 unless Tyson Bagent is the QB. If so, things went badly wrong.

I might worry about a letdown spot for the Brewers off their home sweep of the Dodgers if they weren't off Thursday. So I assume everyone did the Shotz Brewery tour on their day off -- "Schlemiel! Schlimazel! Hasenpfeffer Incorporated!" but still ready to roll here. The Nats are playing as we speak in St. Louis so obvious disadvantage and hopefully they ruin their bullpen. Friday starter Mitchell Parker is 1-4 with a 5.66 ERA away. Do I have to say I prefer -1?

Think you see where I'm going with these pitcher to win props -- at least until we get -1, which is by far my go-to MLB (and NHL) bet these days once I stopped being irked by pushes. Reigning AL Cy Young winner and current clear favorite Tarik Skubal is 8-0 at Comerica Park this year with a 2.06 ERA. He also has the payback angle after losing in Seattle in early April. This certainly isn't a lock as Skubal is opposed by very solid Luis Castillo, but we can't beat this price. As long as Skubal isn't dinged by the "Big Dumper" -- yes, I will say that whenever possible -- we should cash.

When a team's long winning streak comes to an end, it often goes into a mini-slump. That's a spot the Marlins are in today in a series finale/getaway game after their 11-game road winning streak ended Wednesday. The Fish have won four straight starts by Cal Quantrill but he didn't pitch all that great in any of them and has a 5.85 road ERA. Cincy's Nick Lodolo has a career-high 10 quality starts this year and hasn't allowed more than three earned in four straight. The Marlins are 18th in MLB in OPS vs. lefties and did little last night against another one in Andrew Abbott. Wouldn't mind -1 here either ...

Think it's fairly clear that I prefer home teams much like I prefer oxygen and 80s culture, perhaps not in that order (maybe). The Marlins have gone all Legion of Doom on the road of late on an incredibly unlikely 11-game winning streak away. They are so overdue a loss, from a Murphy's Law perspective if nothing else. It's Superman week, so you know I had to work in a reference. Darn right I will be at the movie Friday night wearing a cape like a total Comic-Con basement-living nerd (I only nerd for Supes). Miami's Sandy Alcantara has a 9.95 ERA away. Cincy's Andrew Abbott has a 2.13 home ERA and is a first-time All-Star.

Very happy to have pitcher to win props now, and I basically consider this a First 5 play -- and you probably have to play -1.5 on the F5 spread to get a decent price. Certainly could see Boston's Lucas Giolito going deeper against a bad lineup, and in fact he has gone at least six innings in five straight outings -- all quality starts. He looks back to the prime White Sox version of Lucas Giolito. I certainly expect him to leave tonight with a lead. Colorado's Antonio Senzatela (3-12, 6.57 ERA) leads the majors in losses, and the Rox have been pounded in both games of the series thus far.

Will come out of my hobbit-hole with some good news: We now have access to "pitcher to win" props. Alas, I don't see any tonight I will use that on (will definitely be doing so going forward), but I will go ahead and play the Brewers +1.5 to see if my luck has changed. Rookie Jacob Misiorowski has yet to allow a run and just two hits in two home starts spanning 10 innings. Granted, the slumping Dodgers are usually unlike most lineups but without Max Muncy (IL), Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman. The Brewers just need to navigate the top three of the lineup. Clayton Kershaw has been good for the Dodgers, but Milwaukee is 15-10 vs. southpaws.

Gonna take the rest of the weekend off as I'm just not seeing this sport well currently, but I do want to play this. And I think this is why AI will never accurately replace humans. Yeah, there are some statistical edges for Houston. But the Dodgers just got PUNKED in their own park on Friday. Embarrassed. A computer doesn't take into account pride or intangibles. In a 162-game season, you need to find spots where teams will care. I assure you this will be one for the Dodgers.

A rare opportunity for me to play -1 on here so will certainly take it as Houston remains without two of its best hitters in Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez. It's always tricky, it seems, for teams to play the next night after spending a series at Coors Field, which the Astros just did. Can't say I love Dodgers starting pitcher Ben Casparius, although he might follow an opener. That just won't be Shohei Ohtani like last time as Ohtani is scheduled for Saturday. But Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. has been hammered for 12 runs over 8.1 innings in losing his past two. Mookie Betts has fabulous splits off him.

One bright spot of Atlanta being shut down yesterday at home by the Angels was resetting the bullpen. The Orioles were off Thursday, but we did well fading them their final two in Texas earlier this week. Former Braves righty Charlie Morton has been better of late for Baltimore but still 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA away. Atlanta's Spencer Strider is healthy and it's showing with only six earned allowed over 24 innings in his past four (3-1 record). Would like -1 here too.

This is purely a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out of the Toronto lineup play and nothing more. We push, we push. Bummer, I was hoping to see him against one of my favorite recent former Cubs in Kyle "the Professor" Hendricks, who probably throws a slower heater than I do ... and I'm old and pretty sure have an ulcer (believe that hatched on Bartman night; so it's now nearly 22 and talking back/disrespecting me). And KH gives up homers. So that works in this regard sans Baby Vlad. Jays starter Eric Lauer has been really solid.