Larry's Picks (3 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
The Crimson Tide will need all their weapons against potent North Carolina, and Alabama senior guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. -- the team's top 3-point shooter at 44.3 percent -- is iffy at best. He took an elbow to the head in Alabama's win over Grand Canyon. UNC's offense is excellent, but its defense is even better (No. 6 per KenPom). The Tide have struggled to slow down dominant big men, setting up Armando Bacot (14.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg) for a monster performance. Look for the ACC to continue its incredible ATS run (29-9-1 ATS the last two NCAA Tournaments).
The Huskies shot 3 of 22 from deep against Northwestern, and the game still was a blowout start to finish. This one will be tougher against a very physical and staunch defensive team in San Diego State. But the elevated play of Donovan Clingan should somewhat neutralize Jaedon LeDee. And ultimately, UConn's overall excellence will prevail. The Huskies have won eight straight NCAA Tournament games by 13 or more points. Playing in front of a partisan crowd in Boston, look for UConn to extend that streak.
The Rams have covered five straight road games, including winning at Villanova and South Florida to reach the NIT quarters against Utah. The Utes are 16-2 at home and clicking offensively, but this will be a bigger challenge than they faced against Iowa's 157th-ranked defense (per KenPom). VCU checks in at No. 43 and holds opponents to 41.5 percent from the floor -- 37.3 percent over the last three games. It won't be a hard scout for VCU coach Ryan Odom; he and Utah coach Craig Smith both coached Utah State before leaving for their current jobs. VCU starting seniors Max Shulga and Sean Bairstow left Utah State with Odom before this season and surely would love to take down Utah. Grab the points.
The Bearcats got by San Francisco and trounced Bradley without starters Day Day Thomas and Viktor Lakhin. They won't play Tuesday against Indiana State, and this is a matchup in which Cincy will miss their firepower. Indiana State has won and covered against Minnesota and SMU despite leading scorer Robbie Avila shooting 5 for 20 combined. That's how lethal the Sycamores are offensively. Look for Indiana State to keep proving it belonged in the NCAA Tournament.
The Bulldogs could be considered fortunate to be here. They shot a crazy 14 of 27 from deep at Wake Forest while the Demon Deacons were missing leading scorer Hunter Sallis (18.0 ppg). I still like them to compete hard to the final whistle, despite missing some key rotation pieces, as they chase an unlikely 20th win. The Buckeyes' leader in scoring, assists and steals, Bruce Thornton, is questionable after injuring his thigh in Saturday's win over Virginia Tech. While I expect him to suit up -- he's from Georgia -- he could be less effective than normal. Back the upstart Bulldogs to cover their seventh straight.
Tarleton State finished second in the WAC to Grand Canyon and enters this CIT semifinal on a 13-2 tear (11-2-2 ATS). The Texans feature WAC Defensive Player of the Year KiAndre Gaddy and All-WAC First Team member Jakorie Smith (15.8 ppg). The Mastodons pulled off an upset at Bowling Green to get here and boast an impressive offense (80.9 ppg), but they rank 195th in defensive efficiency.
No. 3 seed Seattle dispatched Delaware State 79-66 on Saturday at the CBI, held at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Fla. So the Redhawks were resting Sunday while No. 11 Evansville upset Quinnipiac. On Sunday the Purple Aces played without starters Ben Humrichous and Yacine Toumi, who account for 25.5 points and 11.2 rebounds per game. Humrichous did not make the trip; it's unclear if Toumi will play Monday. Either way, I like the Redhawks -- a team that beat Grand Canyon once and lost by single digits in the other two matchups. Sunday's win over Quinnipiac was just the second game Evansville won all season without Humrichous (14.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 41.4 percent on 3-pointers).
Yale was fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament, then made the most of its opportunity by capitalizing on Auburn's sloppy performance. Now the Bulldogs face another elite defense in San Diego State (10th nationally per KenPom). Jaedon LeDee continues to carry the Aztecs offensively, pouring in 20-plus points in 10 of his last 11 games. He should dominate again. Look for Yale's 3-point shooting to regress after the Bulldogs hit 45 percent in beating Auburn. Lay the points.
Alabama found no resistance from Charleston's 175th-ranked defense as the Tide put up 109 points. Grand Canyon ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency and just held St. Mary's to 38.8 percent shooting, including 7 of 25 from beyond the arc. The Lopes are 30-4 and won't be intimidated in this matchup, especially with wins over San Diego State and St. Mary's under their belt. Grand Canyon also will have a crowd edge, as was evident Friday. Look for a tight, high-scoring game and grab the points.
Wake Forest is an explosive offensive team, especially at home, but I like the Bulldogs to keep this tight and cover their sixth straight game. Georgia beat the Demon Deacons, 80-77, in Athens early in the season, though Wake wasn't at full strength. Both teams are much improved since that meeting. Georgia had an extra day to prepare after beating Xavier on Tuesday. Look for a strong performance from Silas Demary Jr., who's returning to his home state, as Georgia keep the margin within single digits.
The Lopes are for real at 29-4 and own a win over San Diego State. But I'm going against the Cinderella story and backing the Gaels, who have won 23 of 25. St. Mary's ranks 14th nationally in defensive efficiency and allows 58.7 points per game. The Gaels have better size and scoring balance and should pull away for the cover late.
The Horned Frogs were held to 45 points by Houston in the Big 12 Tournament, but this experienced club should bounce back strong versus Utah State. Leading scorer Emmanuel Miller (15.9 pp, 5.9 rpg, 2.7 apg) and Ernest Udeh are good to go after dealing with injuries, and Jameer Nelson Jr. comes in with double-digit scoring efforts in five of his last six games. TCU has improved defensively due to a lineup change, and I expect the Horned Frogs to force critical turnovers in this matchup.