Larry's Picks (2 Live)
In the last seven games without Trae Young, Jalen Johnson has averaged 23.7 points. He has shot much better on the road, 53.6 percent overall and 40.8 percent from beyond the arc. This is a good matchup as the Lakers rank 26th in defensive rating and are playing the second night of a back-to-back.
The Orange are 6-1 with 6-9 sophomore Donnie Freeman in the lineup, the loss coming by three to Clemson. Without him, Syracuse went 5-4. Since returning from a foot injury, Freeman has scored 18, 27 and 22 points while going 7 of 15 from deep and 16 of 20 on free throws. Florida State gives up a league-high 45.3 percent shooting from the field as well as an ACC-high 81.3 points per game. Look for the Seminoles to fall to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
The Leathernecks are 0-6 in Ohio Valley play, losing by an average of 13 points. While both teams are terrible offensively, Eastern Illinois is substantially better on defense. And the Panthers have been much more respectable with senior guard Andre Washington in the lineup. In the eight games he's played, the team has gone 4-4 with Washington averaging 13 points. At home he's averaging 15.4 points while shooting 36.8 percent from deep. Back Eastern Illinois to win its fifth straight at home and cover.
The Badgers have won nine straight meetings and 18 of the past 20. They just won at Michigan, a monumental achievement. But now they have to quickly re-focus for a huge rivalry game at improving Minnesota. The Gophers, who are 9-1 at home, had their five-game win streak snapped in an OT loss to USC. But I like Niko Medved's team, which had an extra day of rest, to possibly pull the upset -- as long as Minnesota avoids serious foul trouble. The Gophers lead the nation in assist rate and allow the third-fewest points (66.1) in the Big Ten.
Jaylen Warren caught all five of his targets last week and in this matchup, he should be involved as a receiver. The Texans have given up 20 catches to opposing backs over the past four games. They force QBs to get rid of the ball quickly. I would also play this Over 2.5 for plus money.
Houston’s defense faltered a little down the stretch and, overall, wasn’t as dominant on the road. Aaron Rodgers will get rid of the ball quickly, somewhat negating the Texans’ pass rush. The Texans are more comfortable playing indoors. I’m expecting a game that goes down to the wire and love grabbing a full field goal with the home dog.
After an 0-7 start against mostly power programs, Nicholls State has ripped off eight wins in nine games. The Colonels have covered three straight in this series, too. While McNeese remains the class of the Southland and enjoyed NCAA Tournament success last season, the Cowboys continued to draw inflated lines. They've failed to cover five straight. I would play this down to 14.
The total is 250 for this matchup between the Jazz and Cavs. Utah has been terrible defending opposing guards, and Garland shoots better and scores more at home. Look for Garland to go off in this dream matchup against the NBA's worst defense.
This is a tough matchup for TreVeyon Henderson. The Chargers have allowed 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games. For the season they rank fourth in rush efficiency defense. And Rhamondre Stevenson has looked resurgent down the stretch, which could limit Henderson's attempts. Sure, Henderson is liable to break a long one, but I bet against that happening given the matchup.
Chargers left tackle Jamaree Salyer practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, putting him on track to start Sunday at New England. That's huge for LA's beleaguered offensive line. I'm expecting a tight, lower-scoring game with the Chargers' elite defense (second in EPA over the last 10 weeks) containing Drake Maye. LA rested key players in the regular-season finale, which should help the Chargers now. Look for a 23-20 type of game and grab the points.
Despite coming off the bench, Spurs forward Keldon Johnson is averaging 15.8 points in January. He scored 22 points in San Antonio's first meeting with Minnesota this season. The Timberwolves gave up 146 points on Saturday and we have a healthy total in the mid-230s Sunday. Look for Johnson to get 25-30 minutes and to score at least 12 points.
This is an excellent bounce-back spot for UCF, which has covered five straight at home. The Knights are balanced; six different players have led the team in scoring. Cincinnati is a team I tried to fade last week — the Bearcats burned me though with a late three, covering in a loss at West Virginia. But I still don’t like Wes Miller’s team and am expecting a much better performance from the Knights after they shot poorly in Stillwater, Okla.
Saquon Barkley had a disappointing season overall, but he showed signs down the stretch. And he didn't play in Week 18 so he'll be super-fresh for this matchup. While Lane Johnson's status remains up in the air, this remains a strong matchup given San Francisco's litany of defensive injuries, especially at linebacker.