

Larry Hartstein
The Maestro
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. Larry tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS (61 percent). He is coming off a 2025 NFL season in which he went 50-37 ATS (57.5 percent), putting him at 643-555 ATS alltime. For NFL Office Pool players, Larry picked every game straight-up the past two seasons and nailed nearly 70 percent of those picks. Larry also specializes in college basketball: Over the past seven seasons, he is 767-672-20 ATS (plus $2,297 for $100 players). In addition, Larry has posted two straight profitable NBA seasons, going 198-152 (plus $1,339 for $100 players). Larry appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ and CBS Sports Network and is a founding member of Early Edge. For Larry Hartstein media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Larry's Picks
3 Live PicksQuinshon Judkins is dominating carries in the Browns' backfield. ...
The Eagles have yet to cover this season. ...
Will Lamar Jackson play through his ankle injury? ...
The Saints will be without Travis Etienne: Alvin Kamara is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. That will make things easier on a Falcons defense that has surprisingly generated pressure despite losing their top two edge rushers before the season. Atlanta is a completely different offense with Michael Penix starting instead of Cooper Rush. Grab the full field goal before it disappears.
The Falcons have proven to be an elite run defense so far, and the Saints are missing their top running back. Look for a pass-heavy game script from New Orleans and go Over on Tyler Shough’s pass attempts.
The Saints are down three key members of their front seven, including defensive signal caller Kaden Elliss. His backup, LB Pete Werner, is questionable after not practicing all week due to a shoulder injury. It doesn't bode well for a Saints team giving up 4.7 yards per carry (26th). Bijan Robinson had 10 days off since exploding at Green Bay, and I like him to run wild again Monday night.
The 49ers have scored touchdowns on a ridiculous 48.2 percent of their possessions. They have not allowed a sack. And only four of San Fran's offensive plays have gone for negative yards. But Brock Purdy and co. are about to get severely tested by the Broncos' defense. While there is optimism about Mike Evans (ribs) and left tackle Trent Williams (stinger) playing Sunday night, they might not be their normal dominant selves. Defensively, Dre Greenlaw is dealing with a quad injury while Nick Bosa and James Thompson Jr. remain out. I like the Broncos to keep this tight and possibly win outright.
The Jets remain without two key offensive weapons, putting an even bigger burden on Garrett Wilson. He drew 13 targets last week and should get at least 10 in Chicago. The Bears play a high rate of man coverage, and Geno Smith looks for Wilson against man. With the Jets potentially playing from behind, Wilson should go Over his receiving yards prop again.
I was torn on this must-see matchup all week but have come around to the Bengals' passing attack being the difference. The Jaguars allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt, third-most in the NFL. And they've yet to face a quarterback of Joe Burrow's caliber. The Bengals are at home and coming off a loss, so I'm counting on a focused effort. Burrow is 17-3 ATS in his last 20 games when facing an offense averaging over 27 points, like Jacksonville's. In other words, he elevates his game in these spots. I would only play this at less than a field goal.
Chase Brown gets the vast majority of carries in Cincinnati, but this should be a pass-heavy game script. Led by immovable nose tackle Davon Hamilton, Jacksonville is extremely tough to run against. The Jaguars smothered TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson last week (combined 15 carries, 45 yards) and are allowing 3.6 yards per carry this season. Look for the Bengals to attack Jacksonville through the air and use Brown heavily in the receiving game.
In the one game Nico Collins played this season, the Texans put up 31 points and nearly beat Buffalo. The offense has looked terrible without him the past two weeks. Now there is optimism Collins (hamstring) will return in Week 4, along with starting right guard Ed Ingram (groin). Ingram also has missed two straight games. CJ Stroud will be facing a Cowboys' defense allowing a 121.3 passer rating -- third-highest in the NFL. The Texans know their season isn't over; they also started 0-3 last year before finishing 12-5 and winning the AFC South. Look for a desperate performance from the home team.
Arizona is 1-2 after facing Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold and Brock Purdy. Now the Cardinals get to face Jameis Winston, who is completing 51 percent of his passes while averaging an NFL-low 4.7 yards per attempt. Jacoby Brissett is a much better option at this stage of their careers, and the Giants just lost their top pass rusher in Brian Burns. I agree with the strong line move toward the Cardinals.
It appears the Cardinals are ready to give rookie Jeremiyah Love all the work he can handle. He had 26 touches in the Week 3 loss at San Francisco, totaling 109 yards from scrimmage. While I don't expect that kind of workload, Love gets an easier matchup against a Giants defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry. With Love looking like he has put his high-ankle sprain behind him, I bet on the No. 3 overall pick to be very productive at MetLife Stadium.
Josh Downs drew 10 targets in Week 3 as Alec Pierce remains sidelined. Downs leads the NFL in average separation score, per Fantasy Points. In other words, he's getting open consistently. This is a dream matchup against Washington's terrible secondary. Look for Downs to post 70-plus receiving yards for the third straight game.
Playing a depleted and suspect Carolina defense, the Browns averaged 3.8 yards per pass and 4.1 yards per play. They allowed a 38 percent pressure rate. Now they face a much tougher Pittsburgh pass rush. Look for Deshaun Watson to make critical mistakes against a Steelers' defense that ranks fourth in sack rate and is tied for the lead with 19 tackles for loss. Mike McCarthy changed two starters on his offensive line entering Week 3, and the moves paid off. Pittsburgh averaged 6.0 yards per carry. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three TDs while being sacked just twice.






