Tom's Past Picks
I see two programs headed opposite directions here. Seton Hall has been on an ascending trend for a few weeks now, and in my estimation, the market hasn't fully caught on. Meanwhile, the Friars have been getting incrementally worse as conference play rolls on.
Washington will be a unique challenge for the Michigan defense in the same way it’s a unique challenge for every defense. There just aren’t many college football teams with three NFL-caliber receivers like Washington has. Still, if there's a defense in the country with a combination of pass rush and secondary strong enough to at least hold them in check, it’s Michigan. Although the Wolverines struggled moving the ball in the air against Alabama, the Crimson Tide have two future NFL cornerbacks. Washington doesn’t. It’ll be another close game, but one Michigan covers more often than not.
You can't give the playcallers involved with these teams a month to prepare for an opponent and not expect they'll cook up ways to roast each other's defense. I'm not entirely sure who wins this game in the end, but I'm confident they'll need at least 34 points to do so.
I don't care about the narratives surrounding this game. These are two evenly-matched teams, but there's one player I believe will make the difference. As great as Michigan's defense has been, it hasn't faced a QB as dynamic as Alabama's Jalen Milroe. Right now, I trust Milroe to make a big play against the Michigan defense more than I trust JJ McCarthy to make one against Alabama's.
Michigan has absolutely no motivation to run up the score in this game. There's nothing for it to prove, so I fully expect that once the Wolverines gain control, they'll go ultra-conservative and bleed clock. And if somehow Iowa pulls off a shocking upset, it'll have to be a 6-3 kind of game.
There are questions as to whether FSU backup QB Tate Rodemaker will be cleared to play in this game, but I'm not sure it matters. The difference between him and third-stringer Brock Glenn is minimal. Either way, I like Louisville to win and save the selection committee from sweating.
The injury to SMU QB Preston Stone is a bigger deal to me than the line in the game suggests. It's not that he's a world beater, it's that SMU is now relying on an inexperienced freshman QB in the biggest game its played all season. Take the talented, more experienced Green Wave.
These are phenomenal defenses, but don't let that distract you from the fact both teams have highly potent offenses as well. This is one of those times when there are simply too many dudes capable of creating big plays.
Boise State has looked better late in the season, but that run coincides with the schedule lightening up considerably. While a weaker schedule has played a role in UNLV getting this far as well, I don't see much of a difference in quality between these teams. I'll take the points.
I don't expect this game to be as high-scoring as the first. Washington's offense has gotten progressively worse since then, while Oregon's defense has steadily improved. Washington has begun running the ball with greater frequency as well.
There isn't much science here as much as gut feel. Opposing defenses have been keying on DJ Moore and Cole Kmet lately, and I get the sense there will be opportunities for Mooney tonight because of it.
Before the season I expected Wisconsin's offense to get better as the year wore on. Thanks to injuries, the opposite has happened. Neither one of these teams has shown much of an ability to score lately.
Virginia Tech has rebounded from an awful start and could get to a bowl game with a win here, but taking the Hokies as a road favorite is too much. This is a huge game for Virginia when you consider the tragedy that caused last year's game to be canceled. There's no way I can bet against the Cavaliers in this spot.
Yes, these are two of the best defenses in the country, and yes, both of these offenses have struggled against the best defenses they've faced. I don't care. The winner of this game has averaged over 43 points by themselves the last seven meetings.
I regret not getting this pick posted when the line was 14, but I'm still comfortable here. Oregon has blown the doors off teams it has a superior advantage over, and struggled to pull away from teams that can match its physicality. Oregon State has one of the best offensive lines in the country and should be able to stick around.