Bowling Green has started four QBs this season. ...

Never mind San Diego's stalwart defense, ranked first in the MWC. Forget the projected rain. Any game involving Boise State does not warrant such a low total. The Broncos have eclipsed 50 points by themselves twice and reached the 40s three times. They operate fast, with the 16th most average snaps per game. San Diego State is no offensive slouch, ranked mid-rank in the league for scoring. The Aztecs landed in the 40s on consecutive weeks in midseason. The defenses and the weather are unlikely to conspire to deliver a score this low.

Fresno State is still alive for a spot in the MW title game and frankly should win out the rest of the RS assuming it takes care of business here. I may have worried about a letdown game after an upset win at Boise State last time out, but FSU has since had a bye. Wyoming is winless in league road games. FSU hasn't lost at home in this series since 2014 (six straight wins) and has held Wyoming to seven or fewer points in four of the last five meetings overall. Fresno State's defense this year ranks 18th in the FBS and 2nd in the MW in turnovers gained (16). The Cowboys have been offensively challenged basically since Josh Allen left.

The Aztecs don't have much time to wallow in a poor showing out at Hawaii, because a huge showdown with another Mountain West title contender is on deck with Boise State. The Broncos have had an off week to rebound after losing starting quarterback Maddux Madsen to injury in the loss to Fresno State, but I don't think the market has adjusted enough to his absence. The Aztecs have been humming at home this year, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread, so this looks like a get-right spot.

Absolutely, Fresno was helped by Boise QB Maddux Madsen getting KO'd early in the Bulldogs' 30-7 win on the blue carpet two weeks ago (November 1). Broncos backup QB Max Cutforth could not pass the ball more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and Fresno took advantage. The subsequent bye allowed some time to pause for the Bulldogs and first-year HC Matt Entz, with Fresno now bowl-eligible and with a chance at a 9-3 regular season mark. The road win at Hawaii impressed, and while soph QB Carson Conklin has yet to throw a TD pass, he limited mistakes at Boise. Wyoming's offense is pedestrian and QB Kaden Anderson has not delivered many big plays...this is a game Fresno can win. Play FSU

Maybe it was the heavy rain last week in Honololu that pushed the Aztecs off course. Whatever, it was an uncharacteristic effort from what had been the MW's best team. Now SDSU is back home at Snapdragon, where the Aztecs have roughed up everybody this season and pitched two of their three shutouts in 2025. SDSU has only allowed 31 points across four home games, less than 8 ppg. Without QB Maddux Madsen, Boise looks ill-equipped to dent the Aztec defense...especially as backup Max Cutforth couldn't throw the ball five yards past the line of scrimmage in the loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, as the Broncos become completely one-dimensional minus Madsen. Play SDSU

Here's another number I think is too low for Saturday, although not Missouri State low. Yes, BYU was smacked in Lubbock by TTU last week but really no shame in that these days and the Cougars still have a clear path to the Big 12 title game and the playoff by winning out. And they are always light years better in Provo (especially at night), including winning nine of the past 10 there. The defense still played pretty well in that TTU loss all things considered and is among the Big 12's best. BYU is also No. 23 in rushing nationally with 200.0 YPG. And it is bringing back the awesome classic home royal uniforms Saturday. TCU top tailback Kevorian Barnes (97-443-3) is questionable.

Provo at night is a difficult place to play, and given TCU QB Josh Hoover's turnover tendencies, I can see things going sideways quickly for the Frogs.

TCU has been playing some shaky football for about a month and I'm not sure Provo at night is where the Horned Frogs are going to recapture their mojo. BYU's offensive woes against Texas Tech are likely a reflection of the Red Raiders' elite status defensively, with TCU being something closer to the average Big 12 team in that regard. If the Cougars can get the ground game going it's going to be a long night for TCU, and a good opportunity for BYU to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive.

Jacksonville State's running game, ranked 4th in yards per game, is designed to exploit Kennesaw State's defensive weaknesses. If the Gamecocks dominate time of possession and control the tempo, they can limit Kennesaw State's offensive opportunities. The Gamecocks have built a historical home-field advantage tradition, maintaining a .731 winning percentage all-time at AmFirst Stadium. Kennesaw State has struggled away from the friendly confines of Georgia, posting a 2-2 record. My model indicates that the wrong team is favored, and Jacksonville State should be favored by -2.3 points. Look for the home team to defeat the Owls for the third straight time and improve to 4-0 ATS as home dogs of late.

UCLA's chances to maintain competitiveness likely dropped from ultra-slim to none with QB Nico Iamaleava (concussion) sidelined. Backup Luke Duncan, to say the least, lacks experience. His total passes attempted: zero. Ohio State does not play araound in ATS terms. The Buckeyes are 7-1-1 against the spread, while the only miss was a 24-point triumph that fell short by 4.5. The Bruins traveled east reently to meet the Buckeyes' powerhouse twin, Indiana. The result -- a 56-6 burial -- offers no promise to this matchup.

It’s do or die this week for Texas. A third loss almost certainly eliminates them from playoff contention, especially with so many other SEC teams in the hunt. A loss will be a big blow to Georgia as well. The Bulldogs would drop to 8-2 with a tough game at Georgia Tech still remaining. Last season Texas went 0-2 against Georgia, despite closing as the favorite both times. I think the Bulldogs are the better team here, although 6.5 points feels a bit inflated. I make Georgia -4.5 and think the line will close around that number. I'll grab the 6.5 early in what should be a competitive game for four quarters.

A seven-point setback to Minnesota. A three-point defeat to Rutgers. A five-pointer to Michigan. Purdue has come mghty close to a Big Ten victory but cannot close the deal. This game seems unlikely to erase the zero in the Boilermakers' league standings against a formidable team at home, but Washington copes with a slew of injuries. Main WR Denzel Boston and two O-linemen likely will sit out. Plus primary TB Jonah Coleman is ailing and could be on a snap count. If the standard Pacific Northwest rain falls a bit harder that predicted, scoring might be limited, which aids the underdog.

On the season Georgia Southern has been excellent at home, where they are 3-1 overall. The one loss was against Southern Miss that is 5-0 in conference, and that was by just three points. Still, I don’t believe the market has caught up on a Coastal Carolina team that has ascended with fourth string quarterback Semari Collier as starter. They are 4-0 ATS and SU in his starts. A loss may happen but they hold within the spread.

Coastal has been one of the better teams in the country over the last month and the market is yet to catch on. This team could still win the Sun Belt, and I expect it to go on the road and win here.