I'll buy the half point, but Air Force is without its starting quarterback in Zac Larrier, No. 1 running back in Emmanuel Michel and No. 1 WR Jared Roznos. Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln? Injuries are a big reason why the Falcons have lost back-to-back games since an 8-0 start.

The "AFS" (Away From Spread) two-week calculation has one of its all-time low numbers courtesy Air Force, sitting on a wretched 2-week "AFS" of a staggering -36. The main reason has been the offense operating witha hurting, then absent, QB Zac Larrier the past two weeks vs. Army and Hawaii. Larrier's status is still unclear, but the evidence we like is on the UNLV side, where the Rebs have dropped just one spread decision this fun-field season for Barry Odom, and if results fall right the next two weeks could end up hosting the MW title game. Play UNLV

UNLV is playing its best football ever, or at least since I witnessed them in the early 1980s. They’ve certainly beaten what the oddsmakers think of them weekly with the best ATS mark of 9-1. Nobody is better in the nation at covering than UNLV. Air Force will show up for this game, but losses the last two weeks at Army and at Hawaii on the road have taken some shine off an 8-0 start. Losing five straight to Air Force adds some more incentive for UNLV to play well. UNLV to cover.