There’s no question LSU has the better offense in this game. However, the Bulldogs have the better defense, especially with stopping the run. Mississippi State is only allowing 87 rushing yards per game on the season, granted those were to two lesser opponents. If the Bulldogs can establish the run and keep Jayden Daniels in check, Mississippi State’s offense should be able to pick their spots in this depleted Tigers defense.

This will be the Tigers’ third game in 13 days, and temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 80s. LSU lost more players (10) to the NFL than any other team in the nation. Last year, Mississippi State allowed 21 unanswered points at LSU after leading 16-10 after three quarters. The Bulldogs were 3-point road underdogs and now get to play at home. LSU is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games as road chalk. I like the home dog.

I wanted this at 10.5 and didn't think I'd get it this early. It's the first true road game for the Tigers. MSU has a veteran quarterback in Will Rogers and the SEC's leading rusher in Jo'Quavious Marks. The Bulldogs are 3-0 under Coach Zach Arnett since he replaced the late Mike Leach and Arnett's defenses are always among the best at forcing takeaways. I'm sure the Bulldogs players are aware this is MSU's first SEC game since Leach's passing and will want to win it for the Pirate. I don't know that they win, but I will be moderately surprised if MSU loses by more than 10 at home.

Yes that's right this is a conference game with the home team getting 10 points. Zach Arnett takes over at Mississippi State after the death of Mike Leach. Arnett ran Leach's defense for three years, improving the Bulldogs each season. My model has LSU winning by by two.