It's possible this falls below a field goal ahead of kickoff -- and waiting is my suggestion for a game that could be closer than we think. Still, Texas A&M boasts the offensive talent that should test Miami's defense far more than the other Miami did last week. The Canes, even if they turn this into a dogfight, seem to lack the punch offensively to keep up with the Aggies. Both coaches are coming off rough seasons, but Jimbo Fisher is under far greater pressure, and it's clear Texas A&M is motivated after covering a 38-point spread last week. Plus, even if the stands are more full then usual, there's hardly a home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium.

This total is moving in the wrong direction. Texas A&M has arguably the best defensive line talent in all of college football and faces an offensive line with a true freshman at right tackle. Meanwhile, Saturday's game will be the first true test for the Aggies' new offensive attack. Facing New Mexico in College Station is no preparation for facing Miami in South Florida. Last year's game finished with 26 total points, and I expect the defenses to thrive again. Give me the Under.

At the end of the day, Miami is overrated and Texas A&M is underrated. My sims have the Aggies winning by 8. This is a value play on Texas A&M.

Miami has a good defense. It's strong enough to keep the game close for a while. But the Hurricanes can’t score enough to cover the spread or, get this game Over the total. Take the Under.

These teams played last season and the final score was 17-9. Why? Because Jimbo Fisher and Mario Cristobal are two of the most conservative coaches in the country, and in big games, they get even more conservative. Approach mixed with two solid defensive fronts makes me think this total is awful optimistic.

Miami is shaping up to be a great under team as the defense, now led by DC Lance Guidry, looks really nasty. They've got a deep rotation of talent on the defensive line, good scheme and NFL talent at all three levels. The offense, comparatively, lacks teeth, and will probably benefit from complimentary football and the success of the defense. Last year's game cruised to the under and I think we see a similar rock fight here.

I'm making this pick based on the eye test. A&M looked the part against New Mexico and made me feel more confident in my high expectations for them this season. Miami was good but didn't pass the eye test offensively against Miami Ohio. Jimbo Fisher is an incredible 15-0 in road/neutral site games played in Florida and 60-9 coaching games overall in the state. The Aggies win by a touchdown, let's say 27-20.