This is an odd situation for me because I don't think Cincinnati's drop-off in 2022 will be drastic, nor do I think Arkansas is as good as many others. Yet, here I am taking the Razorbacks against the spread because while I expect the Bearcats to be one of the better G5 teams in the country, it's the first game of the season having to replace nine NFL Draft picks, including their starting QB. Arkansas' experience and homefield advantage will win out in the end.

Cincinnati’s recent excellence is the only explanation for its No. 23 national ranking. Eligibility ran out on numerous Bearcats, notably Desmond Ridder, who was locked in as starting QB since 2018. He and eight teammates were NFL draftees. Arkansas had far fewer holes to fill. Its ground game is bulldozer-like, which should afford experienced QB KJ Jefferson enough passing opportunities to keep the offense on the move.

Expect the Bearcats to take a step back -- although playing in the AAC may only lose 2-3 games total -- after losing quarterback Desmond Ridder, the two-time AAC Player of the Year, leading rusher Jerome Ford and seven starters off the defense. The Woo Pig Sooies lost star wideout Treylon Burks but added Oklahoma transfer Jaden Haselwood and QB KJ Jefferson is back. The offensive line should be one of the SEC's best. I suppose this could be like a 3-point win or something but I'm just going to take the points out of play.