Elite programs can survive five standout players sitting out. Not Purdue, especially when two of them (WR David Bell, DE George Karlaftis) are its best pair. The deeper Volunteers can deal with a couple of key absentees (RB Tiyon Evans, DB Alontae Taylor). Purdue is pass-heavy, with the fourth fewest rush yards in FBS, and Tennessee’s more balanced offense is a plus. The Vols have won their last four bowls straight-up.

MUSIC CITY BOWL -- We knew previously that Purdue stud receiver David Bell (93 catches, 1,286 yards, six TDs) and maybe the team's best defensive player, end George Karlaftis, were skipping this bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. The Boilers continue to take hits as No. 2 receiver Milton Wright (57 catches, 732 yards, seven TDs), starting senior cornerback Dedrick Mackey and left tackle Greg Long are also apparently going to sit. I just don't like giving 5 points (probably soon to rise) so we'll hit the moneyline while it's still below -200.