This line drifted up in part because of uncertainty of Penn State QB Sean Clifford. He appears to be green-lighted. The Nittany Lions rank sixth in FBS for points allowed (14.7), which magnifies the healthy spread. They have covered four of the last five in the series. The Over has hit once in the last six meetings, a trend that favors any sizable underdog.

I think the hook may matter here -- perhaps a 38-20 Buckeyes victory? I do have to take this many points, though, even as good as Ohio State has been since that early-season loss to Oregon. Penn State has an excellent defense and perhaps more important QB Sean Clifford says he will be 100 percent healthy this week. Him leaving injured against Iowa is why PSU lost and Clifford being less than 100 percent was why it lost last week to Illinois -- and probably looking ahead to this game. The SportsLine Projection Model has OSU winning by 12. ESPN's SP+ has it a 14-point margin. Sagarin has it 12 points.

The Nittany Lions are a hot mess, and Ohio State -- led by star quarterback C.J. Stroud -- is rolling. As a result, the Buckeyes will put up around 45 or 50 points against a demoralized team led by coach James Franklin, who appears to have one foot out the door. The question then becomes, can Penn State score enough to push this one over the total? Yep. The Buckeyes defense has been improving, but it still has some major issues.

The warning signs for Penn State had been there long before the losses to Iowa and Illinois. Even when the Nittany Lions were winning games they couldn't run the ball, and that's put far too heavy a load on the shoulders of Sean Clifford, who is more of a game-manager than a game-winner. Now the Nittany Lions have lost their best run-stuffer in PJ Mustipher, and will be facing an Ohio State offense that's been unstoppable in October. The Nittany Lions can't keep up.