This can be found as low as Texas A&M -4 at some books, which gives the Aggies great value going up against a hobbled Razorbacks team. Arkansas comes into this game riding high, and if it was being played in Razorback Stadium, I could see the Hogs being a pick 'em in this game. The problem is that this is in Dallas, and the injuries Arkansas has on the offensive line are not ideal given it prides itself on its running game and Texas A&M's defense is incredibly stout up front. This is going to be a low-scoring game, but it's a perfect selling spot on an Arkansas team that is getting a ton of love for dominating a few games in its own house. Aggies by a touchdown.

Texas A&M has won nine straight games in this rivalry, but our sims have Arkansas winning this matchup about 51 percent of the time despite being the underdog. Arkansas has been competitive despite losing nine straight and has come within a TD in five of the last seven matchups, three of which have gone to OT. Texas A&M has played three low ranked nonconference games (Kent State, Colorado and New Mexico), while Arkansas already has a big victory against a ranked Texas team this season. This game will be Zach Calzada's second start of his career and first against a SEC opponent. I like the value on Arkansas +5.5 here, but I also think +175 ML could be worth the risk as well.

I've been making the argument for weeks that Arkansas might be the second-best team in the SEC West, but while I still think it's a legitimate argument, I can't back the Hogs here. Arkansas is banged up on the offensive line and could be without two starters for this game. That's terrible news against a Texas A&M defensive front chock full of NFL players. If Arkansas struggles to run the ball, I don't have enough faith in the passing attack to keep up over 60 minutes without a lot of help from its defense and special teams.

Though Arkansas is rebuilding impressively under second-year coach Sam Pittman, this is a tall task. The Aggies defense is hellacious, highlighted by QB pressures. The matchup of RB Isaiah Spiller versus the Razorbacks’ defense tilts in favor of A&M. The game, at JerryWorld in Dallas, marks the ‘Backs’ first away from home, where they have blasted three visitors, though only one of note.

These two teams are built in almost the exact same way -- they run the ball and they play stout defense. On top of that, both have passing games that leave plenty to be desired. Aggies quarterback Zach Calzada will be making just his second start after replacing injured starter Haynes King, while Razorbacks signal-caller KJ Jefferson has been as much of an impact on the ground as he has on the air. This game will be won and lost in the trenches, and be an old-school treat that shouldn’t eclipse the 45-point mark.