I believe Baylor is underrated, while the overall market is pretty high on Iowa State. I have this game closer to the opening number of five. Iowa State defeated Baylor 38-31 as 14-point road favorites despite getting outgained 366-362 last season. Two seasons ago, Baylor defeated Iowa State 23-21 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Baylor is 12-4 ATS as an underdog in its past 16 games. Finally, Iowa State will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time in well over two years. Take the Bears plus the points.

Not many people are paying attention to Baylor's 3-0 start to the season, nor is it difficult to understand why. Beating up on teams like Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas isn't going to move the needle for most, but a look at the underlying metrics suggests this Baylor team is better in 2021, and I don't think the market has caught up quite yet. The Bears are dangerous as home dogs against an Iowa State team that hasn't shown much explosiveness on offense, which makes it difficult to pull away from opponents.