While I'd be comfortable giving the 1.5 points, there's no reason to with such good value on the moneyline. As others have mentioned, the disparity in quarterback play makes the Wolf Pack the call here as, even if Kansas State is able to move the ball, quick answers are possible. Relying on an unranked Group of Five team on the road against a Power Five opponent that's had plenty of success over the years is a tough spot, but it's the right side with Nevada likely able to take advantage of multiple opportunities -- perhaps some created by turnovers -- to pull out the win.

Opting for a Group of Five member on the road against a Power Five club can be hazardous to one’s healthy betting account. But the one-sided QB matchup -- fringe Heisman Trophy candidate and future NFLer Carson Strong versus backup Will Howard, replacing injured Skylar Thompson -- is quite a contrast. The Wolf Pack already downed California as a visitor. Its dogged pass rush should drive Howard out of his comfort zone. The K-State offense was shaky when Thompson went out last Saturday, and the Wildcats barely got by Southern Illinois.

Get to know the name Carson Strong, because the Wolf Pack quarterback is going to be this year's Josh Allen -- the Group of Five prospect who flies up draft boards. In some instances, he already has. CBS Sports NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson recently pegged him as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, and he'll show the world why against the Wildcats. Kansas State's defense has been solid this year, but it hasn't faced anything like the aerial attack that the Wolf Pack will unleash on Saturday.

This is nothing more than a QB mismatch to me. The drop off from Kansas State starter Skylar Thompson to back up Will Howard is huge, and Thompson will not play in this game. Meanwhile, Nevada has a possible first-round pick at QB in Carson Strong, who heads a strong -- sorry -- passing attack that should move the ball against this Wildcats defense. Nevada is favored for a reason. Don't overthink it.