Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Perhaps it's the coaching change that has led many to doubt Marshall at the start of the season, but I don't get it. What else do you need to see? The Thundering Herd have pounded their first two opponents this season, and they were massively underrated against Army in the opener. Enter East Carolina, who got every bounce against a bad South Carolina team ... but still lost ... and already got whooped by Appalachian State. I wish this was under 10, but I'll still take it as long as it's at -110 odds because the Herd should have plenty of success today.
Marshall has been dominant to start this season, winning its first two games by a combined score of 93-17. East Carolina, on the other hand, is 0-2 to start the season and lost to South Carolina last week despite leading 14-0. East Carolina ranks 123rd in the country, having given up nine sacks through two games, while Marshall is tied for the best in the country with 12 sacks in two games. Our sims have ECU scoring almost a full touchdown less than Vegas projects, but the sims are right in line with Vegas having Marshall scoring 34. I like Marshall, and I also think there is value on Under 58. The Under was 5-2 in Marshall home games last season.
It probably doesn't sound fun laying 10 points with Marshall but we might actually be getting that number at value this week. The Thundering Herd are averaging 46.5 points per game so far this season compared to an ECU team who has yet to crack 20 in a single game. More importantly, couple that with ECU's heartbreaking loss last week vs. South Carolina plus having to travel as well, Marshall could (and should) likely be favored by more.
I don't love this at 10 but don't think it has any chance of dropping to 9.5 -- I will probably take that alternate line -- but we are 2-0 betting ATS on Marshall so why stop now? This is the first road game of the season for the Pirates, and they are just 9-19 ATS in their past 28 away. Marshall might be the class of Conference USA and has blown out its first two opponents. The SportsLine Projection Model has Marshall winning by 16.
Marshall’s defense is being overlooked for some reason. The Herd led the nation by allowing only 13 ppg last season and almost all of those defensive players are back. Through two games, they made quick work of their opponents with an efficient offense while the defense allowed only 8.5 ppg. Marshall should be closer to -16, so let's lay the number.