The spread has nose-dived as more Texas defections from the game become public. All value has been lost on Colorado (+7.5), which leaves the total as a viable option. For Texas, three-fifths of the starting OL is gone: Samuel Cosmi (opt out), Derek Kerstetter (injury) and Denzel Okafor (COVID-19). Two true freshmen are poised to step in. The Buffaloes’ main missing—from-action personnel also play offense: RB Ashaad Clayton (opt out), TE Brady Russell (injury) and WR La’Vontae Shenault (suspension). Texas has broken the usual pattern in bowls, with the Under going 5-0 in its last five. The number is increasingly appealing as it has inched up.

ALAMO BOWL -- Texas has dropped from a 13-point favorite to a nine-point favorite. The Longhorns closed out their regular season with 608 yards of offense in a 69-31 win at Kansas State. Colorado caught Stanford and UCLA off-guard early in the season. First-year coach Karl Dorrell had the Buffaloes prepared to overachieve. They beat San Diego State and a bad Arizona team before losing at home to Utah. The squad that lost to the Utes is the one Colorado truly is. Texas gets the cover at a cheap price.

The Buffs defense has limited big plays throughout the short season, which will play well against a Longhorns squad that will have issues moving the ball consistently after several defections. The Buffaloes are one of the most physical teams in the Pac-12, and that'll help them keep this one close.