With the unpredictable nature of bowl season I like to find underdogs I feel are getting a bit disrespected by the lines and take them straight up. That's precisely what's happening here with a UCF offense capable of putting up 40+ points on this BYU defense.

There is some concern here about UCF being without top receiver Marlon Williams, but this line is an overreaction to his absence. BYU was a juggernaut earlier in the season when it was playing a light schedule, and as things became more difficult down the stretch, the Cougars struggled on a more even playing field. UCF might be the best team it has faced all season, and it still has plenty of weapons on offense to keep this one close, if not win outright.

Put this pair of three-letter schools together, and it adds up to a six-letter word: POINTS. BYU’s defense is better equipped to keep the opposition in semi-check. Nearly every opponent scored below its season average in the matchup with the Cougars. Plus, the Knights must replace some extra-large shoes; main receiver Marlon Williams has chosen NFL draft preparations over participating in the bowl. Coogs QB Zach Wilson captains an offense that ranks sixth in scoring (43.0 points a game) and eighth in total yards (510.1). The Knights’ numbers are comparable but were achieved by operating at a faster pace.

BOCA RATON BOWL -- It’s easy to look at this game and think “oh, BYU and UCF can light it up offensively -- the Over is a slam dunk.” UCF finished sixth in the AAC in defensive yards per play over the final month-plus of the season, and BYU’s offense has tailed off a bit over the last couple of games. This will be more of a battle in the trenches than oddsmakers think