Iowa State has gone Under in four of its last six games, while the defense has allowed 24 or fewer points in five of the last six games. The Cyclones were bending but did not break against Oklahoma State (461 yds, 24 pts) and Texas (448 yds, 20 pts). West Virginia's defense has allowed 17 or fewer in four of its last five games. The Mountaineers offense has slowed down to a crawl the past two games, with just 128 & 126 total plays in those games. The NCAA average is 140. WVU pass defense has allowed just nine passing touchdowns, while intercepting 10 passes.

I don't want to overcomplicate things here. These are two teams who are most effective running the ball on offense, and two teams that have shown to be solid defensively all season long. I don't get the sense his is going to be a tennis match.

Did you know that West Virginia is kind of good? This is thanks mainly to a defense that's ranked 11th nationally in SP+ and 8th in points allowed per drive. The Mountaineers are particularly effective in stopping the run, ranking 9th nationally in defensive success rate against it. Iowa State's a bit one-dimensional on offense and ranks 54th in rushing success rate. I think the WVU defense can limit Hall better than most Big 12 defenses and force Iowa State to beat it through the air. The Cyclones can do that, but I just don't think they can do it effectively enough to cover the spread in the process.

If Iowa State were a lesser-coached team, I'd worry the Cyclones might be a bit tight here with a chance to clinch their first-ever spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. However, Matt Campbell is one of the nation's top coaches. He has the nation's second-leading rusher in Breece Hall (1,260), who has a national-best best eight 100-yard rushing games and six multi-TD games. WVU is a good defensive team and on extra rest after last week's game vs. Oklahoma was canceled, but now that this spread is under 7, I'm jumping on the Cyclones as I think they win by a TD. Iowa State has held WVU to below 200 yards of total offense in the last two games in the series, both ISU wins.