Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
Backing Michigan isn't fun this season, but it's the right play at -115 on the moneyline. Between players opting out and routine injuries, Penn State is clearly in worse shape than Michigan heading into this road game. I make the Wolverines -2.7 points better in the simulations.
I said last week that if Michigan didn't cover against Rutgers -- not just win, but cover -- then it was a lost cause. Well, Michigan beat Rutgers, but it needed three overtimes to do it and didn't come close to covering. Now I'm supposed to trust the Wolverines as favorites? No thanks! I don't care if I'm betting on a winless Penn State team here. The fact is that records aside, Penn State's performed better than Michigan this season in a lot of areas. Penn State is 0-5 ATS this season, but the two times it has failed to cover as an underdog were against Ohio State and Iowa, two teams that are a lot better than this Michigan squad.
This is clearly the Disappointment Bowl of Week 13 with Penn State winless and Michigan at 2-3 -- and nearly having lost at Rutgers a week ago. That would have been rock bottom for the Wolverines. Will either head coach be back in 2021? Neither James Franklin nor Jim Harbaugh will be fired but could choose to move somewhere else. (Harbaugh to Detroit Lions?) We like UM here being at home and because the Nittany Lions have been gutted by injuries and opt-outs, may not have leading rusher Devyn Ford, don't know who their quarterback is and are 0-6 ATS in their past six Big Ten games.