We're missing the best of a number that opened south of 21, but still expect the Buckeyes to pull away and cover this big number. As good as Indiana has looked so far, it has been against relatively limited offensive opponents. The three TDs are an extremely tempting take but this is the equivalent of getting about one touchdown against an average opponent. In other words, those points are fool's gold in this one.

Betting against the Buckeyes is usually bad for business, but numbers are numbers and mine say they should only be -17 with a home field edge built-in against Indiana. The Hoosiers have had their rating upgraded each week after winning and covering all four games, and the Buckeyes' massive rating, my No.1 overall, still doesn’t get to -20.5. It's a small disparity, but just the excuse I needed to ride with Indiana which has covered the past five meetings with Ohio State. The Hoosiers will play well. I bet them to cover.

Justin Fields and the Buckeyes are going to force the Hoosiers into a shootout, and there’s no chance that Michael Penix Jr. and that crew can keep up. They’re 10th in the Big Ten in total offense (362.8 yards per game) and 11th in yards per play (4.94).

Strip the school name off the jerseys, and this spread would be in the vicinity of two touchdowns. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. has entered the Heisman speculation and is surrounded by playmakers. He might be one tier below counterpart Justin Fields, but the Hoosiers can spring some traps. They are picking off one of every 13 opponents’ passes, the highest rate in FBS. Indiana is unbeaten, straight up and ATS, and has covered on its last five trips to Columbus.