Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
During this season of college football, the team that is able to have continuity will ultimately have the most success on game day. Southern Miss enters this matchup with 15 returning starters, including their its sensational QB Jack Abraham. Last season, its passing game averaged 289.5 yards, which was 19th in the country. The core of that unit returns and will face a South Alabama defense that is breaking in a lot of newbies in the secondary.
My theory heading into the 2020 season is that the lack of an offseason is going to have a greater impact on offenses than defenses. So much of offense is based on repetition and knowing what to do and when. Offenses will be a bit behind to start the season, which will lead to sloppier games. So I'm taking the Under here. The fact the Under is 18-14-1 when USM is favored at home under Jay Hopson doesn't hurt my confidence, nor does the fact the Under is 8-3 in South Alabama's last 11 as a dog.
Both teams have been hit by player opt-outs, but appears this spread has dropped form an opener of -13 because of a handful of experienced defenders who will be out of action for Southern Miss. The Jaguars are historically sticky as underdogs, but this line move puts the value with the Golden Eagles. Quarterback Jack Abraham and his receivers should have plenty of success against a relatively inexperienced secondary. It's tough to envision South Alabama keeping up for 4 quarters, but the play is now before this spread possibly climbs back to -14 or higher.
The first all-FBS matchup of the 2020 college football season is Thursday night on the CBS Sports Network as Southern Miss of Conference USA hosts South Alabama of the Sun Belt. The Jaguars were one of the worst teams in the nation last year at 2-10, while the Golden Eagles reached a bowl and finished 7-6. Both offenses are likely to be rusty. The Under is 8-3 in USA's past 11 as a dog and hit in USM's final six last year. A total of 62 percent of model simulations are leaning Under. That's the play at -110.