The Broncos have gone 4-1 ATS their last five home games. In the first meeting between these teams on October 12th, Boise State won 59-37. Boise State will start Jaylon Henderson at QB, who is a dual threat that will pose big problems for the Warriors defense that ranks No. 118 over the last six weeks. Hawaii has allowed 5.7 yards per play on the ground and 10 yards per pass over that time. The travel, the cold, the Blue Turf and not forgotten is Boise’s loss in the conference championship game last year. All of those factors help our case laying 14 points.

Hawaii would have picked a different setting and opponent. Temperatures are expected to hover near 40, with rain and high winds foreseen -- hardly ideal conditions for the islanders. More importantly, the Rainbow Warriors have been Boise’s whipping boys, with defeats in all seven meetings by an average margin of 33. The difference was closer, but still not close, this season as the Broncos won 59-37. Hawaii has covered in only five of its past 17 roadies, in contrast to Boise’s 4-1 recent ATS home record. Take the Broncos.

We know the Rainbow Warriors can score, but their main issue is a defense that has given up many big plays. Boise State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference and an efficient offensive attack that is very good inside the red zone. This one won't be close. Lay the points with Boise State.