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Bo Nix had a rough go of it in The Swamp a few weeks ago, and while that does not necessarily mean he will have the same experience at Death Valley ... it is more likely than not. The Florida defense is actually better than the LSU defense (when healthy), but the Tigers were able to slice and dice it in the second half. I expect a similar result on Saturday with a close game in the first half that sees LSU pull away over the final 30 minutes. Auburn has not won at LSU since 1999, and six of the last nine meetings in Baton Rouge have seen the Bayou Bengals win by double digits.
There's just too much value to pass on with the underdog in this important battle of SEC Tigers. Auburn's edge on the defensive line is a swaying factor, and its run offense should help shorten the game and limit possessions for LSU's explosive offense.
This game will come down to whether or not Bo Nix can protect the football and keep the offense on pace against an athletic defense in LSU. The key for LSU will be up front along the offensive line. It will be up to the interior linemen to keep Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown out of the backfield. I like how this LSU team is built and trust this veteran group to take care of business at home.
LSU’s offense is advancing 7.9 yards per play, second-best in the FBS. Auburn counters with a 20th-ranked defense for yards permitted at 4.6. Though its recent track record in Baton Rouge is discouraging, the series tends to produce final scores with a one-possession margin. Auburn has covered in seven of its latest eight games. Freshman QB Bo Nix has gotten acclimated to big-boy football and will not be weak-kneed in the crucible at LSU.
There have been two different Bo Nixes (Bos Nix?) this season. There's the home version of Bo Nix, who has been reliable and good. Then there's the road version, and he's not nearly as good! This game will boil down to whether or not the Auburn offense can keep up with Joe Burrow and LSU. It can't. Until Bo Nix shows me he can go on the road and ball out against a top defense, I'm not going to bet on him doing so.
Auburn's rushing attack is still spotty and quarterback Bo Nix goes through prolonged spurts during games where things completely stall out. That's not going to cut it against the best LSU offense in program history. The Tigers' offensive line has been playing lights out the last two weeks, and will have enough success against Auburn's defensive front to allow quarterback Joe Burrow time to find his receivers. LSU covers late.