Coach Jim Harbaugh’s 0-7 straight-up record at Michigan as an underdog has overshadowed this matchup. It cannot be overlooked, but nine points is a generous spread for a projected low-scoring affair that carries a total of 46.5. Penn State squeezed out only 17 points against Iowa last Saturday and the same amount a month ago versus Pitt. UM hammered the Nittany Lions by 35 a year ago, extending its streak to 4-1 outright.

There are a lot of things that Jim Harbaugh hasn't been able to do at Michigan, but he's done pretty well against Penn State. He's 3-1 ATS against the Lions as well as straight up, and this spread is too large. In two games against strong defenses, Penn State has scored 17 points per game. This Michigan defense has figured it out the last couple of weeks, and I'm expecting a low-scoring affair. One Penn State more than likely wins, but not one it covers.