An opportunity to take Northwestern by more than a touchdown at home against a team with a lacking offense should not be ignored. Though I was not fond of the way Northwestern played against Stanford in Week 1, this is a team that often gets better as the year goes on. Michigan State did show out against Western Michigan, but it fought to a 10-7 game with Arizona State just last week. Expect a low-scoring game that Northwestern should cover in the end.

Rarely does my model say that a point spread offers as much value as this one. My model says Northwestern covers almost three-quarters of the time. The Wildcats have beaten Michigan State three straight times, including last year in East Lansing, and are a veteran team that brings back a lot of players who played in last year's Big Ten Championship Game. The Spartans couldn't score at home last week; they won't score enough to cover this week. Take the points.

Listen, if you want to trust Michigan State to cover spreads this large on the road, then more power to you. I'll just be here taking all these points against a Michigan State team that has averaged 15.1 ppg against Power Five opponents since the start of last season.