The winner of this game is a toss-up if you're betting straight up, and that is the primary reason why I'm taking Texas at home with nearly a touchdown behind it (buy the half-point if you can). The Longhorns are completely juiced for this game, and we all know Tom Herman's record as an underdog against ranked opponents. Sam Ehlinger gives Texas a true signal calling threat, and while it may take a while to get going, I believe the 'Horns can eventually find running lanes in the second half. LSU is a damn good team and may win this game, but there's too much value on Texas to ignore it.

This is simply too many points for the home team. This is the biggest game for the Texas football program in the last several years. This game in Austin is going to be one of the most difficult environments to pick up a road win all season in college football. My simulations make LSU -2 road favorites, suggesting that Texas is a live home dog. Sam Ehlinger is going to find a way to keep the Longhorns within the number.

Both these teams played well last week against much lesser competition. The offenses were outstanding, but the Texas defense, with only three starters returning, had some trouble stopping Louisiana Tech (413 yards). LSU’s defense allowed just 98 yards to Georgia Southern. LSU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games. I like the Tigers to win by double figures -- back LSU.

Tom Herman has only been a head coach since 2015, but there's been an inescapable trend in that short time. His teams have been underdogs 16 times, and they've gone 13-2-1 ATS in those games. Five of them have come at home, where they've gone 4-0-1 ATS. I don't know if Texas wins, but I'm not betting against Herman as a dog.

This might be the best number we'll see on the Longhorns, so we'll lock it in now though of course any further climb will create more value. It already has risen from an opener of LSU -3.5. Texas lost its season opener to Maryland in each of the past two seasons, but it should be prepared against a top-shelf opponent on a national stage. Tom Herman's clubs have been historically efficient in these spots. At least one LSU player already made the mistake of publicly doubting the skill set of Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger. Previous such offenders have ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.