DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL -- The Bulls have one of the best offenses you've never seen -- but Neal Brown and the Trojans have seen it on film for about a full month. They have 17 interceptions on the season (7th in the nation), and have a star in running back B.J. Smith to grind it out. Troy will make it a fist fight, and come out as the winner.

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL -- This is a really good matchup and the Buffalo Bulls have the best quarterback-receiver combo in this game. That doesn't diminish the fact that Troy has some legitimate weapons on the perimeter. As all bowl games generally do, this one will come down to which defense can you trust. Bulls linebacker Khalil Hodge is one of the better backers in college football, and the Bulls' front line should be able to frustrate that Trojan passing game often to steal a few possessions away, giving the ball back to quarterback Tyree Jackson and company.

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL -- Two conference runners-up do battle in southern Alabama. They're similar teams, and both are balanced, but Troy's better on defense, and Buffalo is better on offense. As the spread suggests, it should be a close game. Where these two teams are very different, however, is on special teams. Troy's special teams are superior to Buffalo's, and in a game that could come down to a kick, it's hard to pass on the Trojans.

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL -- It’s a quasi-home game for Troy, which welcomes a short commute to Mobile, Ala. The Trojans ride in on a mini-bowl streak, having triumphed the past two years straight-up. They should get back leading receiver Damion Willis, who missed the Sun Belt title game loss with an injury. Troy tends to gear up against tougher opposition, as its eight-game ATS run versus foes with winning records indicates. Bulls QB Tyree Jackson is slumping after a blazing start.

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL -- Troy is looking to reach double-digits in victories for the third straight season, while Buffalo is making just its third bowl appearance in school history. The Bulls are coming off a heart-breaking defeat to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game, but feature an explosive offense led by quarterback Tyree Jackson, who threw for 2,857 yards and 27 touchdowns this season. However, my simulations say Troy, with its stingy defense, should not be an underdog in this spot. The Trojans rank 28th nationally in total defense, allowing just 345.6 yards per game. In my simulations, Troy is covering over 60 percent of the time. Take the points.