Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
The Wildcats' offense is horrendous. They've scored more than 24 just once in the last six games and are 5-1 under in those contests. Pat Fitzgerald is a defensive guy and know how to scheme against any offense. Now that doesn't mean he can stop them but he sure can slow them down. Northwestern's offense is No. 126 in yard per play.
Northwestern has not won or lost a game by more than 14 points all season. That would make Northwestern and the points look like an obvious choice, but Northwestern hasn't played a team like Ohio State. The Wildcats offense is ineffective, and it's special teams are worse. I don't see a path to Northwestern threatening in this game unless Ohio State makes a lot of mistakes. Plus, the Buckeyes know they need to win impressively to have a shot at the playoff.
It's a statement game for the Buckeyes after the College Football Playoff selection committee ranked them behind No. 5 Oklahoma leading into championship weekend. Led by Dwayne Haksins through the air and on the ground -- which is a new development over the last month -- the Buckeyes will keep their foot on the gas for a very long time. The Wildcats gave up 6.13 yards per play in a win over Illinois last weekend, and the Buckeyes lead the Big Ten in plays of 20 or more yards with 75.
My projections see the Buckeyes beating the Wildcats by an average of 18 points in Saturday's Big 10 title game. I've got Ohio State covering in nearly 60 percent of simulations. Coming off its huge win against rival Michigan, the Buckeyes should make the most of this opportunity. Northwestern lacks the firepower to keep up with the explosive Ohio State offense. Also, seeing as the Buckeyes could be vying for the final playoff berth, they will be motivated to put up style points and I don't see them backing down even with a comfortable lead.
QB Dwayne Haskins is coming off of a six-touchdown passing performance against Michigan. But the bigger story coming from that game was the play of the Buckeyes' defense. Ohio State found its mojo against the Wolverines and did a great job of not only getting off the field, but turning the ball over as well. Northwestern is sound defensively. The Wildcats don't have a lot of mental errors in coverage, nor are they out of position against the run. Their issue in this game will be whether or not their offense, led by QB Clayton Thorson, can have enough success against a motivated Buckeye defense.