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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The trends favor UCF. The home-field advantage favors UCF. History favors UCF. Still, something has been pulling me toward Cincinnati all week. Ultimately, I have to ask myself what I trust more: UCF covering at home or Cincy winning outright -- because I believe those are the only outcomes of this game. With the Bearcats 1-6 in their last seven against teams with above .500 records, and the Knights in the biggest spot they have faced in quite some time -- yes, bigger than the Auburn game last year -- I have to lean with the home team in a showcase spot. Cincy's defense is ranked high, but it has not faced an offense like this. UCF is set to pull out all the stops on Saturday night, and a touchdown should not be much to ask in the end.
Before a national prime-time audience, look for the Knights to produce a statement game against a Bearcats club that has had an amazing turnaround but lacks the firepower to stick with Central Florida for four quarters.
The Knights aim for their 23rd straight-up win in a row. Their victims include much better clubs than Cincinnati. So, can they cover the modest spread against a stiff defense, ranked seventh for points allowed? Of course. UCF churns out 543 yards per game, third-most in FBS. Home has treated the Knights heavenly ATS, with four covers in the past five games in Orlando. Motivation will be overflowing: the on-site ESPN Game Day crew revs up UCF followers, who will carry the energy to the team.
Cincinnati has had a good season, but like UCF, it's done so against a weak schedule. Using S&P+ schedule metric, Cincinnati has played a softer schedule than UCF has, and it's only beaten two teams ranked in the top 60 of its rankings. While the Bearcats have a defense sturdy enough to slow UCF down, it can't stop the Knights completely, and I don't trust this Bearcats offense will be able to keep up throughout 60 minutes.