This line jumped up to nearly a touchdown earlier on Saturday, but patience pays off here -- and you may even be able to get it down to 5 before kickoff. Penn State is a superior team from a talent standpoint, playing at home and coming off a couple tough losses. The Nittany Lions need this win. Iowa has surpassed expectations in a few contests but almost always suffers a letdown (see Wisconsin last season). Penn State winning is not much of a question for me, the only thing to consider is by how much. I think it will be double digits, hence the pick.

The Hawkeyes have been stellar ATS, covering in all six of their victories while their loss to Wisconsin is their only failure to cash. But they are in a tough spot Saturday against a Penn State team looking to get back on track after consecutive home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. It appears the Lions will again come up short of a Big 10 title and playoff consideration, but this is ultra-explosive team is just a couple plays away from being undefeated. Look for QB Trace McSorley to have a huge day as the Lions pick up a big win.

Iowa is 6-1 and ranked at No. 18, and it deserves to be. I just think it's getting a little too much credit with this spread. Part of that is no doubt due to Penn State's home losses against Ohio State and Michigan State. But the best team Iowa has played this season was Wisconsin, and it lost at home to the Badgers 28-17. Its best win is either last week's 23-0 shutout of Marlyand or its 13-3 win over Iowa State back in September. Neither are wins to be ashamed of nor are they enough to give me a reason to believe Iowa goes on the road and covers this number.

Iowa enters this matchup 6-1 and in the top 20, but the Hawkeyes have it done without beating a ranked team. Their last three Big Ten opponents -- Minnesota, Maryland and Indiana -- have a combined three conference wins. The model loves the value on a more tested Penn State squad that isn't getting enough credit. My simulations love the value on the Nittany Lions this Saturday.