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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
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Expert Picks
UNLV is averaging over 30 points per game on the season but that total is a bit misleading. In four games with starting QB the offense averaged 34.75 points per game. In the two games it's been without him it's managed only 21 points per game. I expect that trend to continue in this game, but rather than take a side on the spread, I'm going to rely on Air Force's offense dominating time of possession and burning a lot of clock. So the Under is the smarter play.
Things were looking great for the Rebels when they played even with USC for the three quarters in Week 1. They covered that game and started 3-1 ATS before QB Armani Rogers hurt his foot and they have fallen apart in their last two. The offense has sputtered and the result is the defense being on the field more and getting torched. Both sides of the ball have crumbled. Air Force is the play Friday.
The Air Force Falcons are usually one of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference. This season on the defensive side of the ball is where they are having their struggles. They've had problems getting key stops inside the red zone, which then puts a lot of strain on their offense to keep the pace. UNLV has been a mess defensively, especially in the run defense department. New Mexico, who runs a spread option attack, was able to dismantle them en route to a huge win a couple of weeks ago. Usually having that experience against an option team will bode well for a defense facing another one, but this is a different type of option attack, one that's as precise as you would expect representing our military.