Florida has not lost its first two SEC games in a season since 1986. Granted, that's also the last time the Gators lost to Kentucky (snapping a 31-year streak two weeks ago), but still, it is not a frequent occurrence that Florida stumbles this much to open a campaign. Tennessee and Florida have both beat up on lesser competition and fallen flat on their faces against Power Five programs, but the Vols have so much further to climb than the Gators, which also happen to get their top linebacker back for the first time this season and some extra talent in the secondary, too. Despite Tennessee having homefield advantage, I like Florida to come out on top here.

A yearly tricky ATS scenario surrounding Florida as a road favorite is their offense. Can they muster enough points in an SEC road environment? One result against SEC school Kentucky already showcased that an issue remains as the Gators lost 27-16. Yet a vulnerability for the Volunteers remains that they play to the level of competition especially in big games. Look for that issue to lurk again creating an ATS grab opportunity for the Gators. Grab Florida.

The last time we saw Florida in an SEC game its win streak over Kentucky came to an end, but the Gators rebounded nicely last week against Colorado State. This week they're on the road against another rival they dominated for a while, and as unimpressive as I've found Florida to be this season, I've found Tennessee to be even more lackluster. Through three games the Vols are averaging .281 points per play, which ranks 92nd in the country. Florida is the most robust defense its faced by far this season, and I don't see how the Vols will score enough points to cover this spread.