Fading Miami was a lot of fun in 2017 as the Canes constantly escaped with late wins when it looked like they were headed for sure defeat. If one assumes this UM team operates similarly, this will be another nail-biter, particularly since Arlington, Texas, will be packed with LSU fans being so close to Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Ultimately, the Canes' returning talent on offense should be the difference-maker here. And while I waited a bit to get this in to avoid the hook, it's the side I want. Plus, I have raised expectations for this defense in Year 2 under Mark Richt.

There is inherent risk in going Under with a sub-50 total. Defenses and special teams can generate points. Still, this one shapes up as a grinder. LSU welcomes back several contributors to a defense that yieledd 19 points and 316 yards per outing a year ago. Miami's D was equally stingy through nine games last season, then retreated, in large part, because of a helpless offense. The Hurricanes' defense could feast on the Tigers, who have had to cram for the unveiling of a new spread attack with a fresh quarterback in Joe Burrow. Miami's turnover chain could be on full display.

Mark Richt's Miami squad has more cohesion with 14 returning starters, including quarterback Malik Rosier and it's rated three points better on a neutral field than LSU, which is returning only 10 starters. But I'm inclined to give LSU almost a full point because Tigers fans have a relatively easier trip to Arlington. Also, I'm not very concerned with LSU's new signal caller, Ohio State grad transfer Joe Burrow. I love that Ed Orgeron has exceeded expectations in his year and a half there, going 14-6 against the spread. The Hurricanes nearly lost their defensive front line and faded fast down the stretch, losing their final three games and going 2-7 (overrated) in their final nine. LSU taking points is the play.

LSU has had a lot of disruptions, lost a lot of key players, while Miami is loaded defensively. Mark Richt has experience coaching against SEC teams -- so does his defensive coordinator. The Hurricanes have a fifth-year senior QB, this is on a neutral field, and I just think LSU is a little disorganized right now.

I could give you a bunch of reasons why I like Miami in this matchup, but the truth of the matter is it comes down to a simple gut feeling. I just don't have a lot of faith in LSU this season, and I have no idea what it's done to earn a ranking of No. 25. But perhaps you'd like some analysis to go with this feeling. Well, how about the fact that LSU enters 2018 with one of the least-experienced offensive lines in the country, and the least in the SEC. This doesn't sound like a good thing against a Miami team that returns most of a defense that averaged 3.39 sacks per game last season. That was more than any other team in the country. Furthermore, while he isn't perfect, Miami has a senior at QB in Malik Rosier while LSU will be starting Joe Burrows. Burrows was a highly-rated recruit, but going against this Miami defense in the first start of your college career is not the easiest start for anybody. Lay the points with the Canes. Miami 27, LSU 14

The Hurricanes return most of their starters from last year's 10-win breakout campaign in Mark Richt's first season at the helm. They should be in good shape for a second straight ACC title game appearance. The Tigers recovered nicely from their embarrassing loss to Troy to finish strong. But their best players on both sides of the ball, RB Derrius Guice and LB Arden Key, have departed for the NFL. This LSU club will be a work in progress and much better toward the season's end. But the Week 1 lies squarely with the Hurricanes.