Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson had QB John Wolford for his first four years as the program progressed, ending with bowl wins the past two seasons and 8-4 ATS marks the past two seasons. But now he's got true freshman Sam Hartman running the show. He's going to be well-protected with all five offensive linemen returning. This spread should be double-digits, so there's good value with the road team Thursday. Demon Deacons are the play.

Wake Forest is without QB's Kendall Hinton (suspension) and Jamie Newman (quad injury) for the season opener against a Tulane team that just missed a bowl game last season. True freshman Sam Hartman is talented, but this is still very new to him. Look for Wake to keep the ball on the ground a little and keep the clock rolling. According to my model, you're getting 4 points of value with a projected score of 52. Take the Under.

The total keeps going up, but my expectation is it falls under 54, giving me almost a field goal of value here. Wake Forest will be starting a true freshman behind center -- it's No. 3 signal caller -- and will be running all night long. Tulane also likes to keep the ball on the ground with the option. This is a game we will all be watching Thursday, and while it's not on-brand for me to root against points, it is the smart play here.

There is a lot of optimism about the Demon Deacons coming into this season. They can run the ball and are strong in the secondary. I get the love for Wake. However, this is the third year in Willie Fritz's system at Tulane. The Green Wave finished last season on a roll, narrowly missing a bowl game. And they have one of the most underrated QBs in the country in Jonathan Banks. He is going to surprise folks this season and will be one of the finalist for the Davey O'Brien Award. Take the points.

Both offenses are headed into a gunfight with knives. For Wake, starting QB Kendall Hinton is suspended, while second-stringer Jamie Newman (quad) cannot start. That leaves true freshman Sam Hartman at the wheel of an offense which bears little resemblance to the No. 21st-ranked unit a year ago. Tulane could go without a number of key pieces, notably RB Darious Bradwell. Wake’s strength was its ground game, and the Deacons surely will aspire to time-chewing drives with the untested QB. A rolling clock is foreseeable, which puts the total a tad on the high side.

My projections have Wake Forest beating Tulane in nearly 80 percent of simulations for their season opener Thursday night. Moreover, I've got the Deacons winning by a margin of two touchdowns in the majority of simulations, meaning we should lay the points with the road chalk. I'm seeing Wake having too many athletes and playmakers for Tulane to handle. Matt Colburn should rush for at least 100 yards and speedy receiver Greg Dortch will have 80 yards and a touchdown. My numbers have the Green Wave limited to about 300 yards of total offense.

Wake Forest is coming off a breakout season and has hopes for potentially competing for the ACC title. However, the Deacons have some obstacles Thursday in their season opener at Tulane. True freshman Sam Hartman is starting at quarterback because starter Kendall Hinton is suspended for the first three games of the season. Tulane has the majority of its key players back from a club that came up one play short of being bowl-eligible last year. Wake has been a solid bet as an underdog in the ACC, but laying a touchdown here is asking too much.

Wake Forest scored over 35 points per game last season, but it's replacing QB John Wolford this year. It's also playing an offense in Tulane that runs an option attack, and option attacks love to suck up some clock. Also, an option offense might be easier to slow down when you've had weeks to prepare for it like Wake has. So in a battle between one team with a new QB, and a team with an option offense, in the first game of the season, give me the Under.