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There isn't a lot of certainty about how things will go early in a season, particularly on the first day, but I feel good about Colorado State in this spot. The Rams have covered in five straight against Hawaii, and the Rainbow Warriors aren't Road Warriors. They've gone 6-12 ATS on the road the last three seasons.
Between all the new Hawaii and Colorado State starters, I don't expect too much cohesion on either side. The Rams won last year's game 51-21 at Hawaii, but that was with former quarterback Nick Stevens. Under is the play here.
Colorado State coach Mike Bobo is still hospitalized with an illness. The Rams could be motivated by emotion, but this is often tough to maintain for an entire game. Hawaii's defense has a stud in the middle linebacker Jahlani Tavai, which should make the Warriors much better against the run. I just don't think that it'll be enough in the end. Lay the points.
Colorado State has won and covered the last five meetings in the series, including 2017's 51-21 victory at Hawaii, which was in the middle of an 0-10 ATS run to close out the Rainbow Warriors' season. Only seven teams are rated lower than Hawaii this season as it returns just nine starters and none at the skill positions. The Rams replace quarterback Nick Stevens, but the high-powered offense will be in good shape with Washington graduate transfer K.J. Carta-Samuels. Colorado State to cover is the play.