We've missed the best of a key total that has inched up a point from openers of 44.5, but I'm still comfortable with the notion that we'll see a higher-scoring game than this modest total suggests. Alabama has enough playmakers to have success against a Bulldogs defense that allowed 531 yards of total offense to Oklahoma in the semifinals. Moreover, Georgia has enough options on offense to put up 24-27 points, similar to the numbers Mississippi State and Auburn posted against the Tide. Look fo rthis gaem to clear the Over with relative ease.

Experience counts -- not just on the field and on the sidelines but in the postseason. Add that to Georgia's extensive travel -- not just from California back to Georgia but between Athens and Atlanta constantly in preparation for the game -- and the Crimson Tide seem to have every off-the-field edge. And in a game featuring familiar coaches and defenses, those added advantages count. Add to that Jalen Hurts' mobility as an X-factor, and the fact that Alabama specializes in shutting down Georgia's strength (it's tremendous run game), and I think the curse of the favorites at recent championship games (0-4 ATS, 2-2 SU) comes to an end Monday. Alabama 27, Georgia 20

In evaluating which side of the total to stake out, it boils down to which narrative from the semifinals is more likely to carry over into the championship. Georgia’s explosive rushing offense exploited Oklahoma to the merry tune of 317 yards for a 9.3-yard average. Alabama limited Clemson to 91 yards and a 2.2-yard average. This total goes against the grain of recent championship games. Since the four-game format was instituted, 62, 85 and 66 points have been registered. The two previous matchups resulted in 56 and 65. Significantly, the Crimson Tide participated in three of them. Bama, in fact, has landed in Over territory in 10 of its last 14 bowls and five of the past six January dates. Together, the Tide and the Bulldogs have produced five Overs in the past six encounters. Just because both squads will adhere mostly to the ground does not rule out scoring. This total is an easy target to hit, particularly with the possibility of a turnover by Georgia freshman QB Jake Fromm that results in a short-distance drive for a touchdown.

We have the No. 1 and No. 4 defenses in college football squaring off. It doesn't hurt that as slowly as Alabama plays, Georgia plays more slowly. The average number of plays in a college game is 142. Alabama averages 132, Georgia 125. Although this total has fallen, I'm still going Under.

Alabama and Georgia have met only three times in the past decade and Alabama won all three, covering twice between games in Athens and Atlanta. How is this allowed when both teams are in the SEC? This game is in Atlanta as well, but the Alabama defense is the big difference maker in this spot. This isn't the Sooners' defense. Alabama doesn't lose to QBs like Jake Fromm and the Dawgs' running game will be slowed. The Crimson Tide don't lose to SEC East teams, either. Two great defenses, but 'Bama is the better team and gets the cover.

We know Georgia is built to run the ball and get after the quarterback. Against Alabama, you HAVE to be able to attack the Tide vertically because you won’t be able to just line up and run against that front seven. Will Georgia’s true freshman QB Jake Fromm be able to win with his arm? I struggle to see that happening.

As I mentioned in my pick against the spread, I like Georgia to win outright and claim its first national title since 1983. The Bulldogs will be able to run with more success than the Tigers did and force quarterback Jalen Hurts to have to make several plays with his arm to win. That Bulldog defense will be too tough for the sophomore signal-caller.

Take the Bulldogs to cover and also to win outright. While the Crimson Tide dominated Clemson, Georgia is a more complete football team, will be able to run with more success than the Tigers did and force quarterback Jalen Hurts to have to make several plays with his arm to win. That Bulldog defense will be too tough for the sophomore signal-caller, and lead Georgia to its first title since 1980.