RB John Kelly has scored six of Tennessee’s 15 TDs this year. He has accounted for two-thirds of the Volunteers’ rushing yards and leads them in receptions. None of those statistics will increase Saturday after Kelly was suspended for a drug offense. The dispiriting Vols’ season has taken another hit, and a team that has failed to score a TD in 14 quarters does not figure to break out offensively minus its main gun, even against one of the SEC’s shakiest defenses. This series is the most lopsided in the nation, with 2011 the only season in the past 32 that brought a Wildcats’ win. Kentucky will seize the opportunity to step on the Vols when they are down and send coach Butch Jones ever closer to unemployment.

Tennessee has yet to cover in a single game this season, and while Kentucky got thumped on the road last week, this is still one of the more competitive teams the Wildcats have fielded. They should cover at home and under the lights, but forget the points and take the value of UK winning straight up, hitting in 72 percent of my projections.