Toledo has an explosive offense, but Appalachian State's seventh-ranked scoring defense (17 ppg) will slow down the Rockets. I agree with the line move and will back the small dog.

Both teams have excellent running games in this matchup. Appalachian State has better run defense, Toledo is very giving in that department. Where Toledo has an edge is in their passing game. The Rockets can really air it out, however, this secondary of App State is extremely active at making plays on the ball. I can understand why the line is the way it is, and I see it the same way. Lay the points with Toledo.

Toledo QB Logan Woodside led the nation with 43 TD passes -- against nine INTs -- and my simulations show the Rockets beating Appalachian State 59 percent of the time. The Mountaineers' defense ranked third nationally with 20 interceptions, so ball security will be critical for Woodside. I have confidence in him and Toledo.