A two-time defending national champ versus a team that won a third of its league games: That's the reasoning behind this healthy line. It's too large. UConn has rarely shown a resemblance this season to its immediate predecessors. The least flattering of the Huskies' stats is a 291st ranking in turnover percentage. Oklahoma's offense -- 22nd best in D-!, according to KenPom analytics -- is superior. The Sooners play at full speed and can capitalize from UConn's shaky three-point defense. Oklahoma's lousy SEC record is softened somewhat by its ability to play close. The past there defeats came by a combined five points.

One of the reasons that UConn has taken a step back in 2025 is that its defense is far from the form that anchored back-to-back national championship runs. The Huskies are missing the inside presence of Donovan Clingan, yes, but the perimeter defense has been much less effective as well, and given Oklahoma’s offensive ceiling with standout freshman guard Jeremiah Fears there’s definitely going to be opportunities for the Sooners to score. On the other side we should see Oklahoma’s leaky defense get exposed by UConn’s patience and ball movement, creating some good looks for a team that’s still good enough to capitalize on open looks.

I believe zero chance UConn threepeats but think the Huskies are still miles more talented than Oklahoma, which snuck in with a 6-12 SEC mark -- yeah, let's expand the field again. And I'm certainly not going to bet against a Dan Hurley team this time of year until its clearly out-talented. Sooners senior forward Sam Godwin (6.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) hasn't played since March 5 due to injury and not clear yet if he will be back. Godwin is Oklahoma’s only starter taller than 6-6, and this team ranks 325th in rebounding.