The New Mexico Lobos are a team that initially I believe could be a viable threat as a ten seed. The more I broke down their matchup and I have swayed to the Marquette side. The Golden Eagles have the pride of playing one last tournament with their senior class led by Kam Jones, and can refocus after losing three of four games down the stretch of the season. New Mexico one weakness is they do not counter runs well from the opponent. Expect the third wave of a run to be the dagger against the Lobos.

I love New Mexico’s matchup against Marquette. The Golden Eagles were once a top-10 team, but they struggled to the finish line. Also, if you have not seen Donovan Dent play for the Lobos, he's a spectacular and electrifying guard. The Golden Eagles are going to have their hands full. Give me New Mexico on the money line.

Marquette enters the NCAA Tournament going 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread in its last four games, continuing a downward trend for a team that went 8-8 after a 15-2 start to the season. The Golden Eagles’ offense stagnated, relying heavily on Kam Jones to be a creator and scorer, and in this matchup he’s going head-to-head with another elite guard in New Mexico’s Donovan Dent. The key here is going to be who can keep the other guard from getting downhill, and that’s where New Mexico’s size with Nelly Junior Joseph and the rest of the rim protectors will be a huge factor.

Richard Pitino is 87-48 with New Mexico. They got crushed in the first round against Clemson last season. This team is much better, with an average height ranked 25th compared to 193rd last season. New Mexico boasts a potent offense, averaging 81.2 points per game (26th in the nation) compared to Marquette's 76.9 points. The Golden Eagles have lost three of their last four games and are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five contests. The Mountain West has a net rating of sixth, while the Big East is ranked fourth at Kenpom. New Mexico has the better defense, and the strength of schedule difference is not as significant as you might think. Marquette is 5-11 ATS vs. teams that win >65%.

This is going to be a battle of defense over offense. New Mexico has a top 20 defense in terms of efficiency, but their offense isn’t as strong as year’s past. The Lobos rely heavily on attacking the rim and getting the foul line. Even though they get to line a lot, they’re still shooting less than 69% from the stripe. Marquette has really struggled from beyond the arc this season, but their three-point defense has improved and they’re able to create turnovers. Both teams rely on their defense first to win games, as they both are holding their opponents to less than 71 points on the season.

Pitino the younger knows how to coach and this team came together down the stretch. Nothing to fear vs Marquette, who peaked in January, and I will be playing this on the ML as well. Marquette just 5-7 in their last 12 games, and 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Vegas favoring them too much for their torrid start. Lack of size and rebounding prowess could be a big issue here. Lobos strong turnover margin another big factor to watch here and they allowed just 32% on opposing 3s in Mountain West; if they get a lead they can clamp down. Mountain West prepared them well for this. Donovan Dent can play, and if he gets hot the Flames are gonna get antsy quick.