I downgraded Iowa State a bit since they'll be without Keshon Gilbert, but there is still a lot to like about the Cyclones team. Both teams here have performed well against the spread, but at the end of the day, this is a significant physical mismatch for Lipscomb. I have Iowa State winning by 15+ here.

There might be some consternation about backing the Cyclones to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament with the loss of Keshon Gilbert and the fact that this team simply not the same when it wasn’t fully healthy. And while I agree with those big-picture projections, this seems like the wrong spot to fade a team that will absolutely disrupt everything that Lipscomb wants to do with its physicality on defense. Iowa State has been providing positive updates on a potential return for point guard Tamin Lipsey (groin injury), and that should help the Cyclones find their footing on offense to cover the double-digit spread.

I'm going to take a shot with Iowa State here. I know the Cyclones will be without Keshon Gilbert but they are expected to get Tamin Lipsey back for the NCAA Tournament. Lipscomb is a good offensive team but I don't love this matchup for the Bisons. I think the Gilbert injury will impact the Cyclones at some point but not in this game. The market is a little low on ISU right now. If these teams met a month ago on a neutral court, no way is the line 13.5. I make it 16 and expect the Cyclones to be focused after going 3-4 to end the season.