Louisville is playing in its backyard (in Lexington) against a Creighton team that has been up and down this season. Pat Kelsey‘s energy is infectious and his under-seeded team will use that energy to advance in the tournament.

We wonder a bit about the reps from the ACC like the Cards, as it wasn't a vintage year in the loop. Though Pat Kelsey deserves some mention in Coach of the Year discussions for his total re-work of the 'Ville roster around Wisconsin transfer G Chucky Hepburn, keep in mind that the Cards lost vs. all oF their significant non-ACc foes save Indiana, with Tennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Duke, and Kentucky rolling past the 'Ville. Creighton presents some awkward matchups around 7-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4 ppg), and the Bluejays ability to avoid fouls (leading the nations in fewest fouls pg) has limited opponents doing big damage from the FT line...important stuff in a likely close game. Play Creighton (NCAA at Lexington)

Creighton has a significant front court advantage in this game, and the Blue Jays return several players from last year's Sweet 16 team. If Creighton can handle Louisville's pressure, I expect them to win outright on Thursday. Look for Ryan Kalkbrenner to be a difference maker in this first round matchup.

Creighton's season peaked with its win over rival UConn in the Big East Tournament. The Bluejays were routed in the final by St. John's and now face a team with a similar profile in Louisville. The Cardinals won 11 straight before falling to Duke in the ACC final but they have a favorable first-round matchup.

I had Louisville circled entering Selection Sunday and wanted an opponent they could turn over and bother with their ball pressure defense. We got it with Creighton. The Blue jays really struggled with turnovers all season, ranking 246th in that department. This game is also being played in Lexington, Kentucky, a short drive from Louisville's campus. I expect this to be a competitive contest but I give Louisville enough edges where I'm comfortable backing the Cardinals -135 on the ML