Both games this season went under, and this is the lowest total out of the three. Mount St. Mary’s plays at an average pace, 70 possessions per game, but the Red Foxes do not, less than 67 possessions. Despite being one of the top teams in the conference, Marist has one of the worst offenses in terms of efficiency. To end the season, they were shooting less than 41% effectively but their defense was still holding opponents to under 65 points per game over their final three games. The Mountaineers won’t get any easy shot inside the arc, as Marist is currently 9th in the country in defending there, holding teams to less than 46%.

Some smart basketball people I know and former coaches believe Mount St. Mary's is very live to reach the finals of the MAAC tourney if not win it outright. And I believe they will win this game but will take the points. Mountaineers have won 8 of 11 SU and covered 7 of their last 11. They covered both meetings with Marist, including a 10 point win at home in the regular-season finale. The Foxes can't get anything going offensively, held to 54 points or less in 5 straight games. All 4 of their losses down the stretch were by at least 5 points. Mount is far superior shooting the deep ball and better on the boards as well.