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Don't be fooled by Iowa's 85-60 win over Indiana. The Hoosiers are playing with one hand tied behind their backs tight now minus 6-9 Malik Reneau, and nothing in the Hawkeyes' results pattern indicates they have evolved into a solid defensive team...a complaint lately about Fran McCaffery, with critics maintaining Iowa a bit soft. Ranking a lowly 302 in scoring defense (almost 77 ppg) suggests as much. Meanwhile, Eric Musselman and his merry band of transfers at USC seem to have figured out proper combinations and rotations, and it all came together last weekend at Illinois when stunning the Illini, 82-72. Xavier transfer wing Desmond Claude (scored 31 at Champaign-Urbana) as hot as almost any Big Ten scorer at the moment. Play USC
I’m going to sell high on Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are just 1-3 away from home this season and have lost both of their true road games to Michigan and Wisconsin. One of my betting strategies is to fade teams on the road in conference play that rank 90th or higher in defensive efficiency. The Hawkeyes rank 96th and allow an average 91.5 points away from Carver Hawkeye Arena. USC is starting to play better in Eric Musselman’s first season, winning five of their last seven games. The Trojans lost at home to Michigan 85-74 in a game that was closer than the final score suggests. I like USC at anything under -3.
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