The Thundering Herd have won once on the road this season (1-6), while the Owls are 9-3 at FAU Arena. The teams are very similar on offense, with both the averaging just over 75 points. But Marshall has one of the worst defenses in the nation, allowing more than 76, almost eight points per game more than FAU. The Owls took a 90-77 victory at Marshall two weeks ago. They should have no trouble winning outright again.

Fading the Thundering Herd during their slump. They are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight games. One of those games was at home against the Owls where they lost by 13 as five point favorites. The Owls are playing great as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Herd are playing so poorly and I am expecting that to continue against a team they just lost to earlier this month.

FAU went to Marshall two weeks ago and beat them by 13 on the road. Now they just need to win by four at home to cover. Meanwhile, FAU just beat a better Western Kentucky at home by 9. I think they should have a very good chance to cover this 2 possession line and my model is on the same page, it projects this game as a 7 point win for FAU. I'll happily keep fading Marshall, especially if the numbers agree.