This is a bit of a smaller edge today because the line has fallen from +5 since last night, but this is still a very solid play. My model has this one between 1 and 1.5 points as a projected spread, so we're getting just about 2.25 points of value, which is about the least I'd take on my model's recommendations. Wright State is 1-5 this season and has yet to cover a spread all season. I think the home dog gets it done and maybe even wins outright.

Wright State's lone win of the season was NCAA Division II Lake Erie, although the Raiders have played a pretty tough slate. Purdue-Fort Wayne is 3-3 but has held a lead for 11 minutes or more in every game. The 'Dons lead the Horizon League in scoring (75.7 points per game), field goal percentage (46.7 percent) and turnovers forced (17.0 per game). Ra Kpedi is shooting 68.2 percent on the season, best in the Horizon League. Damian Chong Qui has been a terrific transfer addition from Mount St. Mary's, where he was All-NEC First Team last season. Wright State is 1-10 ATS in its past 11 games. IPFW is 5-2 ATS in its past seven as a dog.