Big West first-round game from Las Vegas. Pretty much every model projects that Cal State Fullerton is at least 7 points better than Cal Poly. It's not that the Titans are all that great at 6-9 overall and 5-7 in the conference, but the Mustangs are 3-19 and 1-15, respectively. They are 0-6 ATS in their past six neutral-site games. Both regular-season games between these schools were canceled. Cal State Fullerton, the No. 1 offensive team in the Big West, is 8-1 SU in the past nine meetings. Cal Poly is near the bottom of the country offensively.

On a point-spread dip, take Cal-State Fullerton. The Titans face off in the first round of the Big West conference tournament against Cal Poly. Over Cal Poly’s last six games the Mustangs went 5-1 ATS, but it does not take away from their overall record of 3-19. Expect a lethargic performance from Cal Poly and Cal-State Fullerton to take advantage.

My model says the Titans cover in 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value at this number. Cal State Fullerton is coming off back-to-back losses against San Diego, but each game was close as it fell by four and seven points. Conversely, Cal Poly is in the midst of a nine-game losing streak, with its last two defeats being by 14 and 16 points. The Mustangs are likely to keep Tuesday's contest closer, but not close enough.