The wrong team is favored here. LSU has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, scoring 119.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks seventh in the country. LSU also has won five straight games against Missouri and has the incentive of the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament at stake in this game. My simulations say LSU covers almost two-thirds of the time and wins by four, so you're getting good value at this number.