Purdue is a totally different team at home. The Boilermakers have won four of their last five meetings with Top-10 teams at Mackey Arena, including two with Michigan State.

If you've been following my college basketball picks, you know what's going on here. A home team in a Big Ten game is a safer investment than most index funds. Plus, Purdue is so much better than its record suggests, and is good enough defensively to frustrate Michigan State. Also, this is only the third true road game Michigan State will have played this season, and Sparty is 0-2 ATS in the first two. Purdue's Mackey Arena is one of the most difficult venues for road teams in the country.

The Spartans float into Purdue on an eight-game straight-up win streak, the last five with ATS wins. The Boilermakers are 1-3-1 in the same stretch. The home side last covered as an underdog seven games ago. Purdue center Matt Haarms is expected to play, but a bum hip against the board-pounding Spartans puts him in an unenviable spot. Senior guard Cassius Winston will be driven to deliver MSU’s first outright victory in his career at Purdue.